Everyone wants a piece of Raj

As the BMC election inches closer ruling and Opposition parties are eyeing the support of Raj Thackeray and his party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNS to exert pressure on both alliance partners and rivalsThe BJP sees an alliance with Raj as a strategic move to get its alliance partner the Eknath Shindeled Shiv Sena and friendturnedfoe Uddhav Thackerayrsquos Shiv Sena UBT worriedSimilarly Uddhav too has hinted at burying the hatchet with Raj preventing a split in the Marathi vote with an alliance With this UBT will not only fortify its position in the BMC but will also weaken the BJPrsquos chances of winning the civic body singlehandedly a longcherished wishThe current situation brings multiple options for Raj mdash aligning with the Mahayuti BJP or Shinde reconciling with Uddhav or contesting independently But all three possible routes have one thing in common mdash a risk that might ultimately cost Raj the very party he builtLast year in the Assembly polls MNS bagged less than two per cent of the vote share and could not even win a single seat including the Mahim segment which was contested by his son AmitIn 2009 Raj who had emerged as a disruptive force won 13 Assembly seats making a dent in the undivided Shiv Senarsquos core Marathi votes in urban areas such as Mumbai Nashik and Thane But thereafter the MNS has witnessed a constant decline The downslide is such that the vote share dipped to 23 per cent in the 2019 Assembly elections Also in the last BMC polls in 2017 the MNS won only seven seats 21 fewer than the number it had won in 2012Despite the poll debacle underscoring the existential challenge for the MNS especially ahead of the upcoming civic polls Raj has a breather for himself and a lifeline for the party as everyone including the ruling BJP Shinde Sena and the UBT camp wants him on their sideAn alliance between the estranged Thackeray cousins mdash Raj and Uddhav mdash could offer benefits like consolidation of the Marathi vote prevention of vote splits mdash particularly in urban strongholds like Mumbai and Thane mdash strengthening the narrative of protecting regional identity and pride creating a stronger Opposition bloc and preserving the Thackeray legacyBut the flip side is in case Raj decides to join hands with his cousin he could face resistance from within his party Many within the MNS may oppose or not want the reunion as they believe merely based on numbers lsquoMatoshreersquo might try to dominate the partnership One cannot rule out the chances of an exodus from both the MNS and Shiv Sena UBT as those with political ambition who have been denied tickets might defect to the BJP or the Shinde campThe other major concern for Raj allying with UBT is that the former will have to campaign against the BJP and its allies This means Raj will have to burn bridges with the BJPTaking lsquopangarsquo with the ruling regime could turn into a political and administrative pushback for the MNS as BJP leaders are not known to easily forgive political turncoats It may be recalled that the Enforcement Directorate ED had once summoned Raj and his party leader Nitin Sardesai in connection with a case related to an ILampFS loan to a realty firmWhether MNS can survive those headwinds and the full wrath of a powerful ruling regime is a question that Raj would need to ask himself before making any moveOn the other hand if Raj explores the option of joining whether openly or in a discreet understanding with the Mahayuti this could be seen as an ideological compromise especially in the wake of the recent MarathiGujarati tensions in MumbaiThis will also mean that to a certain extent the MNSrsquos popularity among the Marathispeaking community might declineAfter Thursdayrsquos meeting between CM Devendra Fadnavis and Raj there is speculation that the BJP wants the latter to ally himself with the Shinde Sena The BJP cannot directly ally itself with Raj who is known for his aggressive stand against migrants in Mumbai especially North Indians and recently Gujaratis as this might have an impact on the Bihar polls which are scheduled for later this year and even on national politicsHence as a solution to having Raj in the Mahayuti a section of BJP leaders are pitching the idea of a RajShinde alliance to prevent the Opposition from benefiting from the division of Hindutva votesBut even if Raj goes with Shinde the former will be questioned from within an Opposition party Last year Raj had blamed Shinde for putting up hurdles in MNS being a part of the Mahayuti alliance in the Assembly electionsHence considering the current political scenarios one may feel like Rajrsquos position is strengthening with both the ruling and Opposition parties interested in inking a seatsharing deal with the MNS One should not forget that Raj also has the option of contesting soloHowever these options reveal a much tougher reality that not a single one offers a clear or riskfree path for RajIn this political crossfire on his birthday today June 14 it is time for Raj to heed the famous line from the Bollywood film lsquoSarkarrsquo loosely based on his late uncle Balasaheb Thackeray Nazdiki faayde ke baare mein sochne se pehle door ke nuksaan ke baare mein sochna chahiye Before thinking about shortterm gain one must consider the longterm losses Rajrsquos next move will not just determine the fate of the MNS but will also decide whether the charismatic nephew of the late Balasaheb Thackeray will be able to reclaim the lost legacy and relevance that once made him a force to be reckoned with in Maharashtrarsquos politicsSanjeev Shivadekar is political editor midday He tweets SanjeevScribeSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individualrsquos and donrsquot represent those of the paper