Local body polls: The enemy within?

As the Supreme Court directs the Maharashtra government to hold local body elections all eyes will now be on how the Mahayuti BJP Eknath Shindeled Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawarheaded NCP handles seat sharing poll campaigning and other issuesWhile many see this as a numbers game the real deal would be whether the alliance stays united or will the ambition and aspirations of local party workers lead to further cracks The outcome will have an impact on the state government and may even redefine the remaining 45 years of the BJPled Mahayuti government A few years back NITI Aayog declared its ambitious plan for MMR to double its GDP from 140 billion dollars in 202223 to 300 billion dollars by 2028 whoever runs these cities holds the key to this massive economic shift No wonder then that control over local bodies is not merely about cleaning drains or fixing roads but about control over cashrich municipal corporations like those in Mumbai and fastdeveloping sister cities like Thane Navi Mumbai Mira Bhayandar and Vasai VirarFor BJP winning the BMC election has been a longstanding dream Though BJP is in complete control at the Centre and in the state wresting Indiarsquos richest civic body from the Uddhav Thackerayled Shiv Sena UBT which has helmed it for 25 years would be a massive symbolic victory for BJPOne does not need political pundits to predict that the BJP will do everythingmdashdivide and rule backdoor deals with Raj Thackerayrsquos Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNS and any other political games neededmdashto make this happenSo to cut a long story short local body elections scheduled at the fag end of 2025 will be more than just routine polls They will be the first big test for the ruling alliance after their victory in the 2024 state Assembly Thereal question now isnrsquot just about numbersmdashitrsquos whether the Mahayuti which came to power together can still hold itself together as the cracks already visible in the alliance start to widen further especially during seatsharing discussionsLast year the BJPrsquos slogan ldquoEk hain toh safe hainrdquo together we are safe played a big part in solidifying the Mahayutirsquos grip on power It worked like a charm helped BJP win a major share 132 seats of the 288 Assembly seats and enabled Devendra Fadnavis to make a triumphant return as chief ministerBut for the Fadnavis government the honeymoon period has been shortlived The cracks within the Mahayuti started to appear almost immediately There were fights over powersharing over portfolios and over the Nashik and Raigad guardian minister post the issue still remains unresolved The tension was palpable but the alliance somehow held it together at least until nowFor BJP or Mahayuti the real threat is not MVA or Uddhav Thackeray but its own alliance partners Shinde claims to be leading the ldquorealrdquo Shiv Sena and if he doesnrsquot get a good deal in seatsharing or if his camp doesnrsquot perform well he could end up being blamed for handing over the BMC to BJP His reputation could take a massive hit which he canrsquot affordItrsquos the same story in Thane and Navi Mumbai Despite being in an alliance itrsquos Shinde vs BJP once again The rivalry is clear Shinde is fondly referred to as ldquoBhairdquo by his followers while BJP leader Ganesh Naik is popularly called ldquoDadardquo in his citadelndashNavi Mumbai Both sides have ignored alliance ldquoDharmardquo and have been seen taking potshots at each other even in public Fadnavisrsquo reaction to the Supreme Courtrsquos order that local body polls be notified needs to be read carefully The CM claimed that Mahayuti would contest these elections together ldquoexcept in one or two places where the situation may be differentrdquoA statement by those at the helm of affairs clearly underlining that things wonrsquot be smooth sailing especially in urban strongholds where BJP and Shinde Sena both want to come out on top is telling Local party workers want to contest independently as they feel that their party has the edge in their region and more importantly to fulfil their dream and ambition to rise to power as lsquoNagarsevakrsquo municipal corporator Whether to go with local sentiment on the ground level or adhere to alliance lsquoDharmarsquo is where the alliancersquos unity will really be testedThe only factor that might prevent such a split is the political situation after Operation Sindoor The retaliation by the Indian Army has only boosted public sentiment for the BJP the way it was seen during the Uri surgical strike The famous dialogue in the movie Uri ldquoHowrsquos the Joshrdquo to which army personnel reply ldquoHigh Sirrdquo can be seen today in many citizens amid the ongoing strikes on Pakistan The military exercise has again given an advantage to the BJP and weakened the bargaining power of its alliance partnersThe Opposition is in no better position Congress Shiv Sena UBT and even Sharad Pawarrsquos NCP are considering whether to fight together or go solo in the upcoming polls especially after their Assembly defeatSo as we approach the polls one question remains will the alliance stay united or will ambition tear it apartSanjeev Shivadekar is political editor midday He tweets SanjeevScribeSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individualrsquos and donrsquot represent those of the paperatOptionskeyd0ddb8ef8f1a62a8cdd22fac27fc5ea7formatiframeheight90width728params