Can Camp Fadnavis weather Shinde storm?

The massive mandate for the Bharatiya Janata Party BJP in the Maharashtra elections has drawn a thick line between it and its allies one of which is an ideological partner and the other not in full agreement with the ideology the BJP advocates It is the line that separates a bulkier BJP from the rest and allows it to test new things if need be It wields command over the allies despite their increased strength and statureTHE BJP has 136 MLAs including four from small allies Shinde Sena has 57 and NCP AP 41 legislators The MVA has ended up with 49 which includes Congresss 16 Thackeray Senas 20 NCP SPs 10 and four from small allies The very sense of things changing overnight is enough to create unrest among the partners especially the Shinde Sena The NCP has nothing to lose it stands to gain perhaps more than expected The question here is whether the BJP will have as much in its share and also take the CMs office away from Eknath Shinde How will the alliance dharma play out for Shinde and Ajit PawarDevendra Fadnavis CM Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar address the press after winning the state Assembly elections PicShadab KhanCut to the past There was a time when the Congress had 200plus seats in the state Assembly The Congress then started fighting battles within instead of taming the rising Opposition the BJP the Sena and later NCP The days of Congress dominance were gone when alliance politics emerged as a permanent feature since 1995 It was shaped further to give subsequent four governments of the parties sharing an ideologyThere was an aberration much before this happened Sharad Pawar in his first tenure as the CM July 1978 to February 1980 had formed a coalition of ideologically different parties his Congress Socialist breakaway the leftist parties and the Janata Party was a mix of rightwingers and socialists Later as a nonplaying captain in 2019 Pawar formed such a government once again with his NCP Congress and Shiv Sena forming the MVA A few days before MVA was founded his nephew Ajit Pawar had made a shortlived government with an ideologically opposite BJP Pawar has been denying his hand in the NCPBJP formation and the return of Ajit Pawar though his nephew and others in the know have said time and again that it was Pawar senior who had agreed to such a formation not only in 2019 but also in 2017 All these formations were shortlivedThe long introduction to this piece is to differentiate between the previous ldquoideologically mixedrdquo dispensations and the one that came into existence in 2023 It is the first such prepoll alliance that has been granted grand approval by voters The endorsement could be attributed in great measure to the BJPs record individual gain and its gelling well with allies Yet the BJPs commanders may face some resistance There is likelihood of the allies bargaining for more share in power and rightly so the CMs office Shinde Sena and plum ministries both allies included Crowded as never before the BJPs state house is already tense fearing largesse at the hands of their high command So it is to be seen if the Sena and NCP are allowed to eat into what the BJPwallahs call their legitimate share particularly the CMO They dont want a repeat of June 2022 where Devendra Fadnavis was demoted to reward Eknath Shinde for his adventure of dividing the Shiv Sena that had enabled BJP to retain power after twoandahalf years But in doing so the BJP has remained without the CMs office because of the MVA experiment and later for the purpose of honouring ShindeDevendra Fadnavis celebrates victory outside the BJP office at Nariman Point PicAtul KambleSensing the BJPs eye on the top job the Shinde camp has invoked their daring do the rebellion of 2022 that split the undivided Sena to justify their demand for the CMO for their party boss at least for the first two and half years if not for full term They say it was because of their revolt that the BJP could return to power without which the national partys exponential growth in the state would not have been possible The BJP camp has the chosen one in the hero of their victory Devendra Fadnavis who they want the high command to install as the next CM or else see the majority of the partys rank and file get frustrated and aimless again despite the triumph For Fadnavis his biggest strength to stake claim on the CMs office is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh which has worked very closely with him to win the elections The RSS went deep into rural and urban pockets It found Fadnavis as the most popular leader among the local rank and file and also among voters Fadnaviss core values and working style perfectly fit the agenda on which BJP won a massive mandateThe 54yearold RSS volunteer was born to a politician father who worked as an MLC He rose through the ranks from a city corporator mayor MLA to twotime CM before working as the Opposition Leader in the Assembly and later as a reluctant Dy CM All through he managed troublesinsults that the thenalliance partners inflicted upon him in the first five years as the CM He joined hands with the Sena and NCP breakaways to give it back to his political rivals Fadnavis is constant at the states political centre stage among many variablesldquoIf Fadnavis who was the CM can be deputy CM why cant Shinde Isnt 2022s sacrifice enough for our partyrdquo asked a senior BJP leader who is rooting for Fadnavis For him and many others Fadnavis is the only face in the state BJP that deserves the honour because the exCM meted out injustice two years ago and because of his resilience manmanagement skills vision and his killer instinct that has propelled the party to a new peak against all adversities Another leader said that the partys act of replacing the established and winning leaderships in Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan should not be repeated in Maharashtra because the state BJP doesnrsquot need it However a stronger party that faces the weakest ever opposition in the legislature and outside it could afford to have a new leader or just let Shinde continue for some time as the CM before replacing him with its own representative said another leader with a note of caution ldquoYou know how unpredictable our leadership isrdquo he saidNot much time is left before the BJP leadership takes a call on the CMs candidate and also on the policies that it would need while dealing with the allies By the time you read this on Monday the picture would be clear for the Shinde Sena NCP Ajit Pawar and more importantly the BJP camps Bright or gloomy It depends on how they take it and mean it1978Year Sharad Pawar became CM for the first timeDharmendra Jore is political editor midday He tweets dharmendrajoreSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycom