Questions on Indo-Pak clashes

The military clashes between India and Pakistan have thrown up questions still swathed in the fog of ambiguity None of these is as significant for sociopsychological reasons as the question outside the circle of experts has the perception of Indians regarding Pakistanrsquos military capabilities changedItrsquos now widely believed Indian fighter jets were shot down although Delhi hasnrsquot explicitly confirmed it This was in addition to the people experiencing Islamabadrsquos raining of missiles and drones on India Regardless of their ineffectiveness Pakistanrsquos relentless attacks came as a rude awakening for those who naively believed Pakistan could be steamrolled as Palestine repeatedly is by IsraelThis change in the popular perception should diminish the appeal of warmongers who support Modi blindly Although themselves disappointed at the cessation of the IndoPak clashes they will not desert him Not yet at leastSo what has Indiarsquos failure to bring Pakistan to its knees cost Prime Minister Narendra Modi He has suffered a serious setback among those who describe themselves lsquoneutralrsquo a category distinct from those implacably opposed to him They call themselves neutral because they voted for as well as against him in the pastThe neutrals are aghast that Modi should have agreed to a ceasefire at American President Donald Trumprsquos behest And this despite Trump not accusing Pakistan of fomenting terrorism and offering to mediate between it and India over Kashmir The neutrals feel Indiarsquos autonomy has been compromised Theyrsquore neither convinced by Delhirsquos projection that Islamabad first sought the ceasefire nor by Washingtonrsquos belated statement that it wished to ldquoencourage direct communicationsrdquo between the two countries not mediate between themIs Modirsquos setback reversible Certainly yes for he overcame the disastrous fallout of his 2016 demonetisation policy and even the horror of lakhs dying during the COVID pandemic Yet his attempt to reverse the setback has had him unwittingly create a trap for himself when he redefined the ceasefire as a mere suspension of Operation Sindoor subject to Pakistan not sponsoring terror in India The redefinition is a selfmade trap because he has lowered Indiarsquos threshold for tolerating terrorismSince terrorism is unlikely to abate in Kashmir what death toll would have India retaliate Much would in fact depend on who dies India struck Balakot in response to 40 CRPF jawans perishing in the 2019 Pulwama bomb blast All the victims except one were Hindu Operation Sindoor sought to avenge the death of 26 people in the Baisaran massacre of whom 25 were HinduClearly India wonrsquot hit out at Pakistan in case Kashmiris are killed in a terror incident This means a group with or without Pakistanrsquos support could create military instability by solely targeting Hindus challenging Modi to react again In case he doesnrsquot hersquod irreversibly alienate even his devotees Indeed Hindus have been rendered vulnerable because of Modirsquos postceasefire speechAn IndoPak conflict always has a HinduMuslim dimension Delhi countered Pakistanrsquos Baisaran plan of exploiting Indiarsquos social faultline by deputing among others Colonel Sofiya Qureshi to anchor the briefings on Operation Sindoor Qureshi has become a symbol of Indiarsquos interfaith cohesion Is this symbolism a harbinger of the Bharatiya Janata Party diluting HindutvaNo for Qureshi is the obverse side of the Hindutva coin which is minted regularly to demonise Muslims and polarise India She was deployed to taunt Pakistan that it canrsquot succeed in aggravating the HinduMuslim divide which mind you the BJP itself has increasingly widened The instrumental use of Muslims for scaring and consolidating the Hindus and at the same time hypocritically showcasing Indiarsquos religious plurality will continue These two tendencies were combined in a Madhya Pradesh ministerrsquos crass stereotyping of Qureshi fooling noneLikewise turning foreign policy into a razzmatazz hasnrsquot impressed the world Not only did Trump refuse to support India he placed it on the same footing as Pakistan in his remarks on the ceasefire despite Delhirsquos revolting desperation to please him The G7 countries didnrsquot support Operation Sindoor nor did our neighbours nor did the global SouthDoes India need to reorient its foreign policy CertainlyDoes India also need to revamp its intelligence agencies which have been blamed for Baisaran Intelligence agencies canrsquot always succeed in preempting terror strikes not even those of Israel which was clueless about the Hamas raid of October 7 2023 Baisaran was mostly about the regime believing in its delusional rhetoric of normalcy in Kashmir the reason why security was absent there That said the downing of Indian jets suggests India underestimated Pakistanrsquos Chinese weaponry systemIndia will increase its defence expenditure to match the ChinaPakistan dyad at the expense of the social sector A country with a large percentage of its population poorly educated and unhealthy canrsquot realise its dream of becoming a great power And therefore the question Is Indiarsquos annihilation of Pakistan the only path to our security No the alternative to it is to resolve the Kashmir issue by satisfying in some measure the political aspirations of its people As I argued in my May 5 column economic integration of Kashmir didnrsquot and canrsquot lead to its emotional integration with India What can Well that requires another pieceThe writer is a senior journalist and author of Bhima Koregaon Challenging CasteSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individualrsquos and donrsquot represent those of the paperatOptionskeyd0ddb8ef8f1a62a8cdd22fac27fc5ea7formatiframeheight90width728params